智昇黄金原油分析：降息预期在发酵 黄金多头震荡上

Group 1: Gold Market - The core viewpoint is that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole conference has significantly increased expectations for future interest rate cuts, with a probability of over 90% for a cut in September [1] - New York Fed President Williams stated that the era of low neutral interest rates in the U.S. is not over, contrary to some Fed officials' views that it has risen due to inflation [1] - Analyst Owen from Zhisheng Research believes that Powell's speech supports a further rise in gold prices, indicating a strong bullish trend [1] - Technically, gold quickly rose from around $3320, with a short-term dip but an overall bullish outlook, focusing on support at $3363 and resistance at $3392 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Saudi Arabia's report indicates a 15.8% year-on-year decline in crude oil exports in Q3, with total export value dropping from 74.7% to 67.9%, although non-oil exports increased by 17.8% in Q2, offsetting some of the shortfall [1] - Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities have disrupted oil exports, providing short-term support for rising oil prices [2] - Oil prices accelerated to $65 before retreating, with a potential resistance level at $64.50; if it breaks above $65, it may reach $67.50 [2] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a significant drop at the end of July, with the previous bullish trend halted, maintaining a weak rebound this month [3] - The focus is on the resistance level at $4.50; if broken, the rebound could expand, while support is at $4.42, with a potential drop to $4.37 if it falls below [3] Group 4: Economic Indicators and Events - President Trump announced a plan to reduce U.S. drug prices by 1400% to 1500% [4] - Fed's Logan mentioned that there is still room for reserve reductions in the banking system, and the permanent repurchase tool may be reactivated in September [4] - ECB President Lagarde stated that tariffs may not significantly impact European GDP, highlighting the resilience of the European economy [4]