Viking Therapeutics: What's Next?

Core Viewpoint - Viking Therapeutics experienced a significant 40% drop in stock price following the release of Phase 2 results for its oral obesity treatment VK2735, despite demonstrating a strong 12.2% weight loss signal over 13 weeks [1][2]. Company Developments - The Phase 3 VANQUISH program was launched on June 25, 2025, with two large trials enrolling: VANQUISH-1 for 4,500 adults with obesity and VANQUISH-2 for 1,100 adults with type 2 diabetes, both lasting 78 weeks [4]. - The injectable formulation previously showed a 14.7% weight loss at 13 weeks with mild to moderate side effects that decreased over time, indicating potential for transitioning from injectables to oral pills for long-term management [5]. Market Opportunity - Goldman Sachs revised its 2030 obesity market forecast to $95 billion, suggesting that even a 2% market share could yield approximately $1.9 billion in annual revenue for Viking, which has a market cap of $2.9 billion [7]. - The company is exploring monthly dosing options for its injectable treatment, positioning itself alongside Novo Nordisk as one of the few to demonstrate efficacy in both oral and injectable forms [8]. Financial Position - Viking has $808 million in cash as of June 30, 2025, but faces a $300 million expense for its registrational program, making partnerships increasingly likely after further data analysis and FDA feedback [9]. - Wall Street maintains an average price target of $87 to $90 per share, indicating a potential 200% upside from current levels, attributed to a misunderstanding of trial design and tolerability issues [11]. Industry Context - The CDC reports that 40% of U.S. adults have obesity, highlighting a vast addressable market for obesity treatments [12]. - Big Pharma remains interested in obesity assets, with companies like AbbVie, Roche, and Amgen actively pursuing deals, making Viking's late-stage opportunity attractive, especially after the recent stock decline [10].