大 A 中期趋势研判（研究报告）：震荡上行，结构性机会突出

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently in a mid-term upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3868.38 points on August 26, having surpassed last year's high of 3674.4 points and reaching a nearly ten-year high. The market exhibits a structural characteristic of "technology leadership + financial stability + resource rotation," with trading volume consistently above 2 trillion yuan [3][5][6]. Market Overall Situation: Fluctuating Upward, Structural Differentiation - As of August 26, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 3868.38 points, up 5.5% from the beginning of the month and 22.72% from the April low. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also showed upward trends, with the latter reaching a new high for the year [5]. - The trading volume has remained robust, with a peak of 2.76 trillion yuan on August 25, marking a ten-year high. This sustained increase in volume supports the continuation of the market trend [6]. - Market sentiment indicators show an increase in the fear and greed index, with the Shanghai Composite Index in the "greed zone" at 73, while Hong Kong stocks remain in "extreme fear" [7]. Driving Factors Analysis: Multiple Positive Supports for Mid-term Upward Movement - The macroeconomic fundamentals are showing signs of stabilization, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of 2025 and significant growth in high-tech manufacturing and new energy vehicles [8][9]. - The domestic policy environment is generally loose, with expectations for a rise in the fiscal deficit rate and an increase in special bond issuance, alongside a continued loose monetary policy [10]. - The funding environment is characterized by a "double 2 trillion" phenomenon, with the margin financing balance exceeding 2 trillion yuan, indicating a healthy level of leverage in the market [11]. Structural Characteristics and Hotspot Sector Analysis - The market is displaying a "main line strengthening + satellite rotation" characteristic, with sectors such as AI hardware, semiconductors, and military information technology leading the gains [13]. - The current market structure is institutionally dominated, with active public funds outperforming broader indices, indicating a shift towards value investment [14]. Future 3-6 Months Trend Assessment: Fluctuating Upward, Structural Opportunities Highlighted - In the short term, the market is expected to continue its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3900 points [16]. - The mid-term outlook remains positive, with a "systematic slow bull" pattern anticipated, driven by favorable policies and a recovering economy [18]. - Long-term projections suggest a continuation of the "slow bull" pattern, with an expected annual compound growth rate of 10%-12% and a total market value potentially exceeding 200 trillion yuan by 2030 [19].