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美国经济遭遇关税和移民政策冲击,鲍威尔思路转向了宽松
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-26 10:57

Group 1 - The July non-farm employment report has shifted Powell's monetary policy perspective towards easing, indicating that a rate cut in September is highly anticipated [2][6] - The July employment data showed a significant drop in non-farm payrolls, with only 73,000 jobs added, far below the expected 104,000, marking the lowest increase in nine months [2][3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, aligning with expectations, while previous months' employment figures were substantially revised downwards, indicating a total reduction of 258,000 jobs for May and June [2][4] Group 2 - Powell noted that the labor market remains balanced, with many employment indicators similar to a year ago, despite the recent slowdown in job growth [3][4] - The slowdown in job growth is attributed to both decreased employer demand and a decline in labor supply due to stricter immigration policies [4][5] - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year slowed to 1.2%, reflecting a significant reduction in consumer spending, which is also linked to labor market conditions [4][5] Group 3 - Powell's view on inflation has evolved, acknowledging that tariffs have not significantly impacted prices as previously thought, although some goods have seen price increases [5][6] - The core PCE price index rose by 2.9% over the past year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures, particularly in goods prices [5][6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to face a dilemma between cutting rates to support employment and managing inflation expectations, with a rate cut of at least 25 basis points likely in September [6]