STARTRADER星迈：欧元兑美元 多头信心不足

Core Viewpoint - The strong rebound in dollar demand has suppressed the buying power of the euro against the dollar, leading to a reversal of most gains made after Powell's speech last Friday, where the EUR/USD pair had briefly surpassed the 1.1700 mark [1][6]. Technical Analysis - The initial resistance for the EUR/USD is at the July 24 high of 1.1788, with further resistance at the year-to-date high of 1.1830 reached on July 1. A breakthrough of 1.1830 could lead to testing the September 3, 2021 high of 1.1909, which is close to the 1.2000 level [3]. - Temporary support is located at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1488, followed by the August 1 low of 1.1391 and the May 29 low of 1.1210 [3]. - Momentum indicators show a lack of clear direction, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to around 51, suggesting limited upside potential, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) is below 11, indicating a sideways trend [3]. Market Outlook - The EUR/USD is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern in the short term, with the dollar likely to dominate the overall trend until a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance or new trade-related developments occur [4][5]. Economic Indicators - Recent economic data includes a decline in durable goods orders by 4.0%, with non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rising by 0.3%. Consumer confidence in the Eurozone was reported at 87, below the consensus of 90 [6]. Trade Relations - The trade tensions have eased with the U.S. and China extending the tariff truce for 90 days, delaying new tariff measures. Current tariffs remain high, with the U.S. imposing a 30% tariff on Chinese imports and China imposing a 10% tariff on U.S. goods [7]. Central Bank Perspectives - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with Powell's balanced remarks contrasting with the dovish stance of other board members. Upcoming economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report and inflation data, are critical for future policy decisions [8]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde stated that the Eurozone economy is "robust, even slightly better than expected," but markets do not anticipate rate cuts until spring 2026 [9]. Speculative Sentiment - Speculative long positions in the euro have increased to nearly 118,700 contracts, a three-week high, while institutional investors have reduced short positions to about 166,400 contracts, a two-week low. Open interest has risen for the second consecutive week, reaching approximately 825,200 contracts [10].