美论坛：为什么中国在明确我们不会偿还的情况下还要购买美债？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, highlighting the shift from passive accumulation to a more strategic and diversified approach in response to changing global economic conditions and U.S. policy actions [1][12][27]. Group 1: Historical Context of China's U.S. Treasury Holdings - China's entry into the World Trade Organization in December 2001 marked the beginning of its rapid accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, primarily through exports to the U.S. [3] - By 2010, China's exports to the U.S. surged to $283.3 billion, up from $69.9 billion in 2002, reflecting an annual growth rate exceeding 20% [3] - The influx of U.S. dollars led to a significant increase in China's foreign exchange reserves, surpassing $4 trillion by 2013 [3][8] Group 2: The Appeal of U.S. Treasuries - During the 2000s, U.S. Treasuries were seen as the only viable safe asset for China, given the limited options in the global market [8][10] - The U.S. economy maintained a dominant position, with GDP accounting for over 25% of the global total and the dollar representing over 60% of global trade settlements [8] - The liquidity and government backing of U.S. Treasuries made them an attractive option for China, allowing for quick conversion to dollars when needed [9][10] Group 3: Changing Perceptions and Strategies - The perception of U.S. Treasuries as a "risk-free asset" has been challenged, particularly after the U.S. froze Russian assets in 2022, raising concerns about the political implications of holding U.S. debt [12][14] - As a result, global central banks began to diversify their reserves, with countries like India and Brazil reducing their dollar holdings [14][15] - China's response has been to gradually reduce its U.S. Treasury holdings by over $280 billion from 2022 to 2025, while maintaining market stability [17][19] Group 4: Diversification of Reserves - China is adopting a strategy of "gradual reduction and multi-faceted replacement," focusing on diversifying its foreign exchange reserves [19] - The share of gold in China's reserves increased from 3.1% in 2020 to 4.8% in 2025, as gold is viewed as a safe asset free from credit risk [19][21] - The internationalization of the renminbi is seen as a long-term alternative, with significant increases in renminbi settlements in trade with Russia and ASEAN countries [22][24] Group 5: Implications for Global Financial Order - The shift in China's strategy reflects a broader trend of diminishing U.S. dollar hegemony, as the U.S. actions have eroded the core appeal of U.S. Treasuries [27] - China's diversification efforts signal a transition from merely adapting to the dollar system to actively shaping a new global financial order [27]