楼市迎来新“拐点”，房价或将“超乎想象”，内行人：优先考虑二手房

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant shift, with second-hand homes becoming a more attractive option compared to new homes, reflecting changing buyer preferences and market dynamics [1][11]. Market Trends - From January to July 2024, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in 50 major cities increased by 11.2% year-on-year, while new home transactions decreased by 3.7% [1]. - In July 2025, 28 cities saw an increase in new home prices, a decrease of 5 from June, while 33 cities experienced an increase in second-hand home prices, an increase of 2 from June [2]. Buyer Behavior - There is a notable shift in buyer mentality, with more individuals prioritizing practical living conditions such as location, amenities, and schools over mere investment potential [4][11]. - Among young buyers under 30, over 60% are now opting for second-hand homes, up from less than 40% three years ago [8]. Price Dynamics - In first-tier cities, particularly in prime locations, second-hand home prices have shown resilience, with some areas like Haidian District in Beijing seeing a 5% year-on-year increase [4]. - Conversely, many third and fourth-tier cities are facing downward pressure on home prices due to population outflow and insufficient industrial support, with over 100 such cities reporting price declines in the first half of 2025 [5]. Developer Strategies - Developers are adjusting their strategies to compete with the second-hand market, focusing on practicality and cost-effectiveness rather than solely high-end offerings [7]. - The inventory of unsold properties as of June 2025 stood at approximately 630 million square meters, equivalent to nearly two years of sales, indicating significant pressure on developers to lower prices [7]. Investment Considerations - Second-hand homes offer advantages such as price transparency and established neighborhood development, making them a viable option for buyers [10]. - The average appreciation rate for core area second-hand homes in major cities is 22% from 2020 to 2025, compared to 15% for new homes, highlighting the potential for better returns on investment in the second-hand market [10].