今晚，油价有变！

Core Viewpoint - The new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on August 26, with expectations for a decrease, marking the seventh adjustment of the year, ending two consecutive rounds of stasis [1]. Group 1: Price Adjustment Expectations - Analysts from Zhuochuang Information and Jinlianchuang indicate that the international crude oil market lacks strong positive signals, leading to a sustained negative change rate for crude oil prices, which is expected to result in a decrease in retail prices for refined oil [1][3]. - As of August 22, the reference crude oil change rate was -4.41%, with anticipated reductions of 190 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel, translating to price drops of 0.15 yuan and 0.16 yuan per liter respectively [1][2]. - If the current round of price adjustments is implemented, the total price changes for gasoline and diesel since the beginning of the year would be a decrease of 225 yuan and 215 yuan per ton respectively [1]. Group 2: Historical Price Adjustment Summary - In 2025, there have been a total of sixteen price adjustment windows, resulting in six increases, six decreases, and four stasis periods [2]. - The next round of retail price adjustments is scheduled for September 9 at 24:00, following the "ten working days" principle [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that OPEC+ will maintain a significant production increase of 548,000 barrels per day in September, while geopolitical uncertainties and sanctions on certain oil-producing countries may pose potential supply risks [3]. - Despite seasonal demand boosts from summer travel in the U.S., overall demand outlook remains pessimistic due to weak global economic data, leading to expectations that the next round of refined oil price adjustments may remain unchanged [3].