别被美股夏季涨势迷惑！德银预警：关税与移民政策冲击远未结束

Group 1 - The US stock market showed strong performance this summer, with the S&P 500 index rising nearly 9% from the spring low [1] - Deutsche Bank warns that the impacts of tariffs and immigration policies will continue to affect the labor market and economy [1][3] - Current tariff revenue is approximately 10% of the value of imported goods, but actual rates may stabilize between 15%-20% depending on final tariffs on chips and automobiles [1][3] Group 2 - The low current tariff revenue is attributed to transshipment trade effects and the advance declaration of duty-free imports of pharmaceuticals and electronics [3] - An increase in actual tariff rates by 15% on a $3 trillion import scale could generate an additional $450 billion in tax revenue, tightening fiscal policy by 1.5% of GDP [3] - The shortage of immigrant labor is expected to significantly impact non-farm employment growth, with current growth rates indicating potential economic recession [3][5] Group 3 - The termination of several Biden-era work visa programs will further strain the labor market, affecting over 700,000 individuals from specific programs [5]