Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-26 14:39Core Viewpoint - Shanghai has introduced new real estate policies following Beijing's lead, which has led to a strong rebound in real estate stocks, particularly those represented by Vanke [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - There are unlikely to be any major policy announcements specifically targeting the real estate market before the end of the year, and expectations for significant measures should be tempered [2] - The only potential major measures considered would be a significant reduction in land sales or the establishment of a 3 trillion yuan real estate stabilization fund to absorb excess land and housing from developers [3][4] - The likelihood of halting land sales is low due to the potential negative impact on local government financing and economic stability [4] Group 2: Stock Market Influence - The recent recovery in the stock market, with A-shares entering a bullish phase, reduces the necessity for major real estate policy interventions [5][8] - Increased stock market activity, with daily trading volumes reaching 3 trillion yuan, indicates a strong market sentiment that could positively influence the real estate sector in the long term [5][6][7] Group 3: Interest Rate and Monetary Policy - A potential interest rate cut is anticipated, with a likelihood of a 10 to 15 basis point reduction in the LPR, which could support real estate sales during the upcoming National Day holiday [9] - If the Federal Reserve implements two rate cuts by the end of the year, further reductions in China's LPR may follow before the Spring Festival [10] - The central bank may also consider reserve requirement ratio cuts, which, while incremental, could cumulatively benefit the real estate market [11]