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信号强烈!一线城市数据下滑,大家不是买不起房,而是不敢买?
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-26 15:32

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai real estate market is showing signs of distress, with a significant increase in available listings and a decline in prices, indicating a shift in market sentiment and potential risks for the broader housing market [3][6][10] Market Activity - In July, the transaction volume for second-hand homes in Shanghai was 16,900 units, which, while lower than previous highs, did not fall below the psychological threshold of 15,000 units, suggesting that there are still buyers in the market [4] - However, the number of second-hand homes listed for sale reached 223,000 units, creating substantial selling pressure [5] Price Trends - The average price of second-hand homes in Shanghai has been declining, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.7% in May and June, followed by a more significant drop of 1.82% in July, marking three consecutive months of price declines [5][6] Market Sentiment - There is a prevailing "wait and see" attitude among potential buyers, with many holding off on purchases in hopes of further price reductions, which is contributing to a lack of confidence in the market [3][8] - The sentiment is exacerbated by a high supply of listings, leading to increased competition among sellers, who are forced to lower prices to attract buyers [5][7] Broader Implications - The challenges faced by the Shanghai market are reflective of broader trends in the national real estate market, where supply is outpacing demand due to factors such as population stagnation and oversupply in certain areas [6][9] - The stability of the Shanghai market is crucial, as it serves as a benchmark for the national housing market; if Shanghai cannot stabilize, it could lead to widespread negative impacts on other cities [9][10] Government Response - The government has been implementing various measures to support the market, including lowering down payments and interest rates, aiming to prevent a more severe downturn [6][7]