The Long-Term Bull Case: Fed Pivot and Bullish Breadth

Group 1: Market Overview - The current bull market is characterized by a potential long runway ahead, with historical averages suggesting bull markets last over four years and yield cumulative returns of approximately 150% since 1942 [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent dovish pivot indicates a readiness to cut interest rates, with betting markets showing an 83% probability of a rate cut in September [2] - Historical data shows that long waits between Fed rate cuts have often resulted in bullish outcomes for the S&P 500, with 10 out of 11 instances showing gains a year later [3] Group 2: Market Breadth and Performance - The NYSE recorded its highest net new high reading of 2025, indicating strong market breadth with a significant number of stocks participating in the rally [3] - The S&P 500 experienced a 94% upside day, marking the first occurrence of a 90%+ upside day at a new market high, with historical data suggesting a 94% chance of being higher six months later [4] Group 3: Short-Term Outlook - Despite long-term bullish indicators, the short-term outlook is uncertain, particularly for September, which has historically seen the Nasdaq decline in six of the past ten years, averaging a loss of about 2.5% [5] - Investors are closely monitoring Nvidia's upcoming earnings report, which is expected to impact AI-related stocks such as Arm Holdings, CoreWeave, Advanced Micro Devices, and Oklo [5]