王石再度预判楼市！这次说得更狠：“软着陆才是最好的结局”快来看

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has entered a cyclical turning point, requiring a "soft landing" to avoid systemic risks and ensure stable economic development [2][3][4] Market Adjustment - The real estate market is undergoing a profound adjustment, with new residential prices in 70 major cities down 4.7% year-on-year and second-hand home prices down 6.2% [2] - Real estate investment has seen negative growth for eight consecutive quarters, indicating a departure from the previous high-growth era [2] - The current market changes are attributed to multiple factors, including demographic shifts, urbanization evolution, and economic development model transformation [2] Soft Landing Strategy - The concept of "soft landing" emphasizes strategic foresight to achieve a smooth transition in the real estate market, avoiding drastic declines and systemic financial risks [3] - Real estate companies are urged to abandon past extensive growth models in favor of quality and efficiency-focused growth paths [3] Economic Significance - The stability of the real estate market is crucial for the macroeconomy, contributing 22% to GDP and providing over 160 million jobs [4] - A "hard landing" in the real estate market could lead to significant economic repercussions [4] Housing as a Necessity - The emphasis on housing as a necessity rather than a speculative asset reflects both national policy direction and market logic [7] - The demand structure for housing is changing, with improvement and elderly housing needs becoming mainstream [7] Regional Market Divergence - There is a noticeable divergence in the real estate market, with first-tier cities showing signs of price stabilization while third and fourth-tier cities face inventory pressure [8] - Future opportunities in the real estate market will be structural, favoring projects with excellent locations and quality [8] Policy Support - Recent policy measures aim to guide the market towards a "soft landing," including relaxed purchase restrictions and lower down payment ratios [9] Financial Sector Adaptation - Financial institutions are gradually shifting their attitudes, with a 3.1% year-on-year increase in real estate loan balances reported by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission [11] Consumer Behavior Shift - Homebuyers are becoming more rational, focusing on housing's residential attributes rather than speculative potential [12] Vanke's Resilience - Vanke Group's "survival first" philosophy has positioned it advantageously during market adjustments, with a sales figure of 287.9 billion yuan and a net debt ratio of 68.3% [13] Urban Development Dynamics - The adjustment in the real estate market will significantly impact urban development, prompting local governments to seek new growth drivers [15] Future Outlook - The real estate industry still holds vast development potential, with new opportunities arising from urban renewal, rural revitalization, and green building initiatives [17] - The industry is expected to return to rationality, focusing on residential needs [17]