美联储释放谨慎降息信号 全球央行同步警示老龄化冲击

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated an openness to interest rate cuts in the coming months despite inflation risks [2][3] - Powell emphasized that the U.S. economy shows resilience amid high tariffs and stricter immigration policies, but labor market and economic growth have significantly slowed [2][3] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.9% year-on-year in July, with tariffs contributing to higher prices [2] Group 2: Economic Challenges and Policy Adjustments - Powell identified new challenges for the U.S. economy, including higher tariffs reshaping global trade and stricter immigration policies leading to a sharp slowdown in labor supply growth [3] - The Federal Reserve's revised long-term goals include the removal of the "average inflation targeting" and a return to a more flexible inflation target [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September surged from approximately 75% to about 91% following Powell's remarks [4] Group 3: Global Economic Concerns - The theme of the Jackson Hole conference was "Labor Market Transformation: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy," highlighting the threat of global population aging to economic growth and price stability [6] - Central bank leaders warned that developed countries face severe labor shortages due to low birth rates and increased life expectancy, which could hinder economic growth [6][7] - The potential for wage-price spirals exists as labor shortages may empower workers to demand higher wages, contributing to inflationary pressures [6] Group 4: Importance of Foreign Labor - ECB President Lagarde noted that the influx of foreign labor has provided growth momentum for the Eurozone economy, countering the effects of reduced working hours and declining real wages [7] - Bank of England Governor Bailey emphasized the urgent challenges posed by demographic changes and declining productivity, stressing the need for increased labor market participation to boost economic growth [7]