2025年，房价还将下跌？楼市专家：今年的房价，超乎想象

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a significant transformation, with a notable decline in property prices and a shift towards stabilization and recovery in certain areas [2][10][11]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a 10.3% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment, totaling 27,730 billion yuan in the first four months of 2025 [1]. - The inventory of commercial housing has reached a historic high, approaching 800 million square meters, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the market [1]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou have seen substantial price declines, with Beijing's prices down 28%, Shanghai's down 30%, and Guangzhou's down over 25% compared to previous years [1]. Group 2: Signs of Recovery - Despite the overall downward trend, there are signs of recovery, particularly in first-tier cities where new home prices have increased for three consecutive months [2][10]. - The sales area of new commercial housing in 40 key cities has shown a 1.2% increase, and sales revenue has grown by 4.4%, indicating a potential turnaround [3][5]. - The easing of inventory pressure is evident, with the sales-to-inventory ratio gradually improving, especially in core cities [3]. Group 3: Policy and Market Sentiment - Government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market have begun to take effect, with local governments implementing measures to support housing demand [5][11]. - Market expectations are shifting positively, as indicated by rising business activity and market sentiment indices in the real estate sector [5][11]. - The overall investment in real estate is projected to decline by 10.6% in 2024, reflecting cautious attitudes among developers regarding future market conditions [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Predictions for 2025 suggest a "slow decline and stabilization" in property prices, with first-tier cities expected to see a 2.5% year-on-year increase in new home prices [10][11]. - The structural differentiation in the market indicates that while core cities may stabilize, third and fourth-tier cities could continue to face adjustment pressures [7][10]. - The transformation of the real estate market is moving towards a focus on actual housing needs rather than speculative investment, marking a significant shift in the market dynamics [7][12].