分析人士：鸡蛋供过于求局面缓解需要时间

Core Viewpoint - The egg price is declining despite being a peak demand season, primarily due to high production capacity and supply pressures in the market [1][2][3] Supply and Demand Analysis - The current supply of eggs is at a historical high, with a stock of 1.356 billion hens, making it difficult to clear excess supply in the short term [1][2] - The market is experiencing a supply surplus, which is exacerbated by low pork prices acting as a substitute, further suppressing egg prices [1] - Analysts suggest that the current situation requires time to alleviate the oversupply, and short-term price increases may face pressure [2] Profitability and Market Sentiment - Egg producers have been facing continuous losses since May, with only a brief improvement in July, and prices have continued to decline into August [2] - The profitability of egg production is shrinking, leading to a pessimistic outlook among producers [3] - Historical trends indicate that after reaching a low point in profitability, there may be a temporary rebound in prices, particularly around seasonal demand peaks like the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [3] Future Outlook - There is a potential for a slight rebound in egg prices due to seasonal demand, but a long-term price recovery will depend on clearing excess production capacity [3] - As schools reopen and centralized purchasing occurs, there may be some support for egg prices, but this is unlikely to reverse the current oversupply situation [3] - The industry may need to undergo significant capacity reduction to restore market balance, with the timeline for this process potentially being longer than in previous cycles [2]