Group 1 - The overall bullish sentiment in the commodity market has slightly weakened, leading to a slowdown in the recent upward momentum of the oilseed market, but the fundamental support remains strong, maintaining a long-term bullish outlook on oilseeds [1] Group 2 - Malaysia's palm oil production in July was reported at 1.8124 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.09%, slightly below market expectations of 1.83 million tons; exports increased by 3.82% to 1.3091 million tons, slightly exceeding expectations; ending stocks rose by 4.02% to 2.1133 million tons, marking the fifth consecutive month of increase but still below the expected 2.23 million tons [2] - High-frequency data indicates that the seasonal production increase cycle may have peaked, with palm oil production from August 1 to 20 showing only a slight month-on-month increase of 0.3%, while export figures recorded a significant month-on-month increase of 13.6% [2] Group 3 - The USDA reported a significant unexpected decrease in U.S. soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, a reduction of 6.2 million acres compared to last year; despite an increase in yield forecast from 52.5 bushels per acre to 53.6 bushels per acre, total production was still adjusted down by 4.3 million bushels to 4.292 billion bushels [3] - The ProFarmer annual crop tour indicated that soybean pod counts were higher than last year in most major producing states, with new crop yield estimates at 53 bushels per acre, slightly below the USDA's estimate [3] Group 4 - As the South American soybean export season ends in September, the market will shift back to U.S. soybeans; if high tariff policies persist, there may be a supply gap in the domestic soybean market [4] - The Ministry of Commerce of China announced preliminary anti-dumping measures on canola seeds from Canada, requiring importers to pay a deposit of 75.8%, which could tighten supply as Canada is the largest source of canola imports for China [4] Group 5 - The U.S. EPA's Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) proposal sets higher blending volumes for biofuels in 2026 and 2027, which is expected to increase U.S. soybean oil demand by about 20% [5] - Indonesia's B40 policy is projected to require 1,419 million tons of palm oil, an increase of 223 million tons year-on-year, with potential future implementation of B50 further boosting domestic palm oil consumption [5]
基本面助力 油脂中长线看涨
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-08-26 23:27