Core Viewpoint - The egg price is expected to face upward pressure in July and August due to seasonal factors, but the rebound is weak this year due to insufficient capacity reduction and early stockpiling for the Mid-Autumn Festival [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The egg-laying industry is currently experiencing an oversupply, weak demand, and intensified cost competition, necessitating close attention to the transmission of profits to capacity [1] - The current culling behavior of farmers will significantly impact egg supply seven months later, as new chicks take time to start laying eggs [2] Market Cycle and Price Trends - The egg market can be qualitatively divided into four phases: prosperity, pressure, clearance, and recovery, with historical averages indicating that the current pressure phase has lasted longer and deeper than average [1] - The average price drop during the pressure phase is 12%, while the clearance phase sees an average drop of around 5% [1] Futures Market Dynamics - The egg futures market has shown a significant decline in August, primarily driven by basis correction, with the near-month contract basis reaching a historical low [2] - The current contango state in the egg futures market reflects ongoing expectations of oversupply, with the near-far month contract spread remaining relatively high [3] Strategic Recommendations - A single strategy is suggested to short near-month contracts as egg prices are expected to continue declining until March next year [3] - An arbitrage strategy is recommended, considering the near-weak and far-strong structure in the futures market, which is likely to persist until capacity is cleared [3] - A dynamic bear spread strategy is advised for the main contract as the market approaches the boundary between the pressure and clearance phases [3]
蛋价在明年3月之前或延续跌势 后期走势重点关注养殖利润对产能的传导
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-08-26 23:27