民生证券：8月经济：股市涨能否带动实体反弹？

Group 1 - The rebound in the service sector PMI and production index is expected to alleviate economic downward pressure following the stock market's rise in August [1][2] - The A-share market reaching a ten-year high is anticipated to positively influence service sector indicators, with both service sector PMI and production index expected to rise [2] - Investor confidence shows signs of stabilization, but consumer confidence recovery appears lagging, with a decline in sales growth for automobiles and home appliances in August [4] Group 2 - External demand risks are emerging, with a noticeable decrease in container shipping volumes from China to the U.S. since August, indicating potential export slowdown [7] - The "stabilizing foreign trade" and "anti-involution" policies are creating dual challenges for enterprises, leading to a likely further slowdown in industrial value-added growth in August [9] - Infrastructure investment is expected to recover, with signs of improvement in asphalt operating rates and cement price indices in August [13] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policy may lead to a quicker-than-expected rebound in industrial product prices, with early signs of recovery in the South China Industrial Product Index [15] - The youth unemployment rate has shown seasonal increases, raising the urgency for demand-side policies, particularly employment stabilization measures [17] - Government bond issuance has slowed, potentially limiting fiscal support for infrastructure and prompting more proactive macroeconomic policies [20]