国际铜价或维持偏强震荡

Group A: Macroeconomic Factors - The core factors influencing copper pricing are expected to shift back to macroeconomic and fundamental aspects in the second half of 2025, as the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies may not be as pronounced as in the first half [1] - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing a "weak but not declining" phase, with GDP growth rates of -0.5% and 3% in Q1 and Q2 2025 respectively, indicating a weakening growth momentum [2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are closely tied to inflation and employment reports, with current inflation pressures not sufficient to prevent potential rate cuts [3] Group B: Supply Constraints - Global copper mine production from January to May 2025 reached 9.524 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.27%, but the growth rate is expected to be below 2.5% for the year due to potential production disruptions [4] - The continuous decline in spot Treatment Charges (TC) has led to a negative TC environment, yet overall smelting output remains resilient due to locked long-term TC contracts and by-product revenues [5] - The balance between mining and smelting capacities needs to improve through sustained mining capacity release and smelting capacity optimization [6] Group C: Demand Resilience - Global refined copper consumption increased by 3.6% year-on-year from January to May 2025, with China's consumption growing robustly at 12.18%, offsetting declines in the EU, U.S., and Japan [8] - Strong demand in China is primarily driven by investments in the power grid and renewable energy sectors, with total investment in the power grid exceeding 825 billion yuan in 2025 [9] - Despite the resilience in demand, challenges may arise in the second half of 2025 due to high base effects from 2024 and potential weakening in appliance and photovoltaic sectors [9] Group D: Inventory Trends - Current global visible copper inventory stands at approximately 600,000 tons, with a reduction of about 200,000 tons from March to June 2025, and a potential for further reduction in the upcoming peak seasons [10] - Concerns about high COMEX copper inventory levels exist, but a decrease in copper material imports due to tariffs may stimulate domestic processing demand, helping to alleviate excess inventory [10] Group E: Overall Market Outlook - The overall fundamental situation for copper appears favorable, with LME copper prices expected to fluctuate between $9,400 and $10,000 per ton [15] - Supply constraints and resilient demand provide a solid support for prices, while risks include inflation pressures limiting the Fed's rate-cutting ability and excess COMEX inventory suppressing price increases [15]