科拓生物(300858)：受益国产替代+新消费 布局C端前景明朗

Industry Trends - The per capita consumption of probiotics in China is significantly lower than in developed countries, with only $0.4 per person compared to $10.6 in Italy, $6.8 in the USA, and $6.3 in Japan, indicating substantial growth potential [1] - The focus on health and the rise of new consumption patterns are driving an increase in probiotic penetration, with a projected 7.4% year-on-year increase in per capita service consumption expenditure in 2024, reaching 13,016 yuan [1] - Domestic research on probiotics has increased over 60 times, with a tenfold increase in global patent technology share, leading to a structural shift from reliance on imports to local supply [1] Market Size and Growth - The market size for probiotic raw materials is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan, with a projected scale of 8.3 billion yuan in 2024, growing to 10.6 billion yuan by 2027 [2] - The demand for probiotics in infant formula is crucial due to the sensitivity of infants' digestive systems, with premium pricing for probiotic-added products [2] - The weight loss market presents a new opportunity for probiotics, as leading weight loss drug companies are experiencing high revenue growth [2] Company Developments - The company Keta has broken the market monopoly of foreign giants with its core strains, investing 36.3 million yuan in R&D in 2024, which is 12% of its revenue, marking a historical high [3] - New strains developed by Keta, such as ProSci-246, have shown significant health benefits, including weight loss and improved metabolic indicators [3] - Keta's new production capacity is expected to reach 950 tons, with a new facility in Inner Mongolia projected to be operational by 2025 [4] Strategic Initiatives - Keta's strategic partnership with Wuka Laboratory, which focuses on metabolic management and health, is expected to enhance its market position, with Wuka achieving over 600 million yuan in sales in the first half of 2025 [4] - The collaboration with Wuka is anticipated to provide Keta with a core channel for consumer-facing products, enhancing future growth prospects [4]