关税大棒砸向欧洲！德国经济火车头熄火，万亿产业链紧急转向

Group 1 - The EU's exports to the US fell by 27% year-on-year in June, leading to a significant reduction in trade surplus from €15.6 billion to €2.8 billion, marking a historic decline [1][2] - The US increased tariffs on EU goods from an average of less than 5% to 15%, with some sectors facing tariffs as high as 50%, resulting in a sevenfold increase in costs for European companies [2][3] - The EU's attempts to circumvent tariffs through third-country transshipment have been largely blocked due to strict regulations and heightened vigilance from US customs [2] Group 2 - Germany's economy, as the EU's industrial powerhouse, is facing severe challenges, with GDP contracting by 0.1% in Q2, risking a technical recession if Q3 shows further decline [1][6] - The automotive industry in Germany is particularly hard-hit, with major companies like BMW and Mercedes-Benz reporting significant profit declines, and the overall cash flow for the three major car manufacturers potentially decreasing by €10 billion [6][9] - Job losses are escalating, with companies like Thyssenkrupp and Audi planning to cut thousands of jobs, potentially leading to a loss of 70,000 jobs in the automotive sector across Europe [6][9] Group 3 - Germany's high energy costs and lagging digital transformation are exacerbating the economic impact of tariffs, with industrial electricity prices being the highest in Europe and a nearly 20% decline in production capacity in energy-intensive industries [9][10] - The shift towards the Chinese market is accelerating, with German companies like BMW and Volkswagen seeking partnerships to enhance competitiveness in electric vehicle production [10][11] - The cumulative economic loss for Germany due to US tariffs is estimated at €290 billion from 2025 to 2028, with the EU as a whole facing losses of €1.1 trillion, indicating a broader impact on the Western industrial system [11][12]