鲍威尔讲话强化降息预期，利多铜铝价格

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole central bank conference strengthens expectations for a rate cut in September, leading to a significant pullback in the US dollar index [1][2] - Powell highlighted a "peculiar balance" in the labor market due to a substantial slowdown in both supply and demand, indicating increased downside risks for employment [2] - The revised monetary policy framework emphasizes a balanced approach to managing employment and inflation targets, with long-term inflation rates primarily determined by monetary policy [2] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - Downstream consumption improvement has led to a decrease in social copper inventory, which fell by 0.87 million tons to 123,000 tons as of August 25, compared to the previous week [3] - The current copper price is reported at 79,270 to 79,520 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease in the average premium to the current month contract [3][5] - Despite the decrease in inventory, rising copper prices are suppressing downstream consumption, increasing the pressure for inventory accumulation [1][3] Group 3: Aluminum Market Analysis - Aluminum ingot inventory increased significantly, with a total of 616,000 tons reported as of August 25, reflecting a rise of 20,000 tons from the previous week [4][6] - The current price of aluminum is reported at 20,780 yuan/ton, with a slight increase from the previous trading day [4][6] - Overall, the aluminum market remains in a seasonal lull, with supply changes being minimal and downstream consumption still weak [1][4] Group 4: Domestic Real Estate Policy - Shanghai has announced significant real estate policy changes, including easing restrictions on home purchases and optimizing housing fund policies, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [2] - These policies are set to take effect on August 26, 2025, and are expected to boost market confidence [2]