特朗普恐玩火自焚：干预美联储或唤醒50年前的“滞胀”噩梦！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential negative consequences of former President Trump's attempts to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, which could undermine the Fed's independence and exacerbate inflation, contrary to his campaign promises to combat it [1][2]. Economic Overheating Risks - Artificially lowering interest rates may lead to economic overheating and increased inflation, which is the very issue Trump aims to address. Low borrowing costs can stimulate demand excessively, resulting in too many dollars chasing too few goods, a situation that contributed to inflation reaching a 40-year high post-COVID-19 [2]. Mortgage Rate Concerns - If investors become concerned about the Fed's independence and its commitment to controlling inflation, market panic could ensue. This could lead to higher long-term interest rates, including mortgage rates, which are already around 7%, worsening the housing affordability crisis [3]. Historical Lessons from Nixon - Historical precedents show that interference with central banks can lead to disastrous outcomes. President Nixon pressured the Fed to adopt expansionary monetary policies before the 1972 election, resulting in runaway inflation that peaked above 13% by 1980, leading to a period known as "stagflation" [4]. Lessons from Erdogan's Turkey - The recent experience of Turkey under President Erdogan, who dismissed the central bank governor and pressured for rate cuts, resulted in a currency collapse and inflation exceeding 80%. This serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of political interference in central banking [5].