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政策“托底”+业绩反转,猪肉股要“起飞”?
Ge Long Hui·2025-08-27 01:13

Core Viewpoint - The recent central government policy to initiate pork reserves has significantly boosted the A-share pork sector, leading to strong stock performance among key companies in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - A-share pork sector saw a strong rally, with Aonong Biological hitting the daily limit up, reporting a net profit of 361 million yuan in the first half of the year, marking a successful turnaround from losses [1][8]. - Muyuan Foods, known as "Pork King," experienced a robust increase of over 7%, with a total market capitalization of 300.8 billion yuan [2]. - Other companies such as Wens Foodstuff, Bangji Technology, and Tianhong Biological also saw significant stock price increases [2]. Group 2: Price Trends and Policy Impact - Pork prices have been on a downward trend this year, with the price of external three yuan pigs dropping from 16.04 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 13.75 yuan/kg by August 26, indicating a persistent oversupply in the market [3]. - The national average pig-to-grain price ratio fell below 6:1, triggering a level-three warning, reflecting a severe compression of breeding profitability [4][5]. - The current pig-to-grain price ratio is at 5.78:1, prompting the National Development and Reform Commission to initiate central frozen pork reserve storage to stabilize market prices [5][6]. Group 3: Company Performance and Future Outlook - Aonong Biological reported a revenue of 3.957 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 15.01%, but achieved a net profit of 361 million yuan, successfully turning losses into profits [8]. - Other companies like New Hope and Zhengbang Technology also reported significant profit increases, with New Hope's net profit expected to be between 680 million and 780 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 155.85%-164.07% [8]. - Muyuan Foods reported a substantial revenue of 76.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.46%, and a net profit of 10.53 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 1169.77% [8][9]. - Analysts suggest that the pork industry is likely to enter a phase of stable and high-quality development, with a focus on eliminating inefficient production capacity and improving cost structures [9].