姜凌波：继续关注“促内需”“反内卷”方向

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.39% at 3868.38 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.26% to 12473.17 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.75% to 2742.13 points, with total trading volume at 2.68 trillion, significantly lower than the previous day's over 3 trillion [1] Sector Performance - The "promoting consumption" and "anti-involution" sectors led the gains, with agriculture, beauty, chemicals, media, and retail sectors showing notable increases, confirming previous insights on market rotation and rebound opportunities [1] - Conversely, the pharmaceutical and non-bank financial sectors were the biggest losers, indicating a cooling off in growth styles [1] Technical Analysis - The market formed a small doji candlestick, suggesting a potential weakening of upward momentum, although bears have not gained a significant advantage, indicating a possible short-term pullback to the 5-day moving average [1] - The absence of a clear market top signal, coupled with a lack of significant volume release during the pullback, suggests that some funds remain reluctant to sell, allowing for cautious optimism in the short term [1] Future Outlook - Following the Jackson Hole meeting, market expectations for a September rate cut have risen to 90%, although the Fed retains some policy flexibility due to rising inflation levels [2] - The A-share market sentiment has cooled after reaching high levels, with a significant drop in trading volume, indicating a potential peak in market enthusiasm [3] - Institutional funds are still actively buying leading stocks, suggesting a continued interest in high-quality assets despite the overall market cooling [3] - The potential for policy support remains, with the domestic market expected to maintain liquidity regardless of the Fed's decisions [2][3]