4个月涨超38%！这个板块长期逻辑已变？

Core Viewpoint - The military industry is experiencing significant growth driven by strong fundamentals, long-term demand, and geopolitical factors, despite short-term fluctuations in stock prices [1][5][7]. Group 1: Growth Drivers - The military sector is categorized as a growth sector due to its genuine growth momentum rather than current price levels, similar to the AI sector's performance [1]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to lead to a surge in orders, with a notable increase in military spending globally, projected to rise by 9.4% in 2024, the highest since the Cold War [1][2]. - China's military spending is growing at over 7%, but remains only a quarter of the U.S. total, indicating a pressing need for modernization in military equipment [1][2]. Group 2: Strategic Opportunities - The goal of achieving the centenary military objectives provides a clear and long-term demand signal for the military industry [2]. - China's military trade currently accounts for about 5.8% of the global market, indicating substantial room for growth as technology and brand influence improve [2]. - Military enterprises are leveraging their technological advantages in emerging fields such as satellite internet, advanced materials, aerospace, and cybersecurity, creating new growth opportunities [2]. Group 3: Recent Developments - The frequency of low-orbit satellite launches has significantly increased, showcasing China's capability for rapid deployment and signaling a shift towards a more robust commercial space industry [3][4]. - The military sector has shown strong performance in August, with commercial aerospace becoming a key driver of growth amid rising geopolitical tensions [3][4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Short-term profit-taking may lead to a pullback in the military sector, but the long-term trend remains positive, supported by ongoing geopolitical conflicts that provide upward momentum [5][7]. - Investors are advised to maintain positions for long-term gains, as historical consensus suggests that time in the market is more beneficial than timing the market [7]. - For new investors, it is recommended to monitor the military sector and consider gradual investments during potential pullbacks [8].