Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-08-27 02:12Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expresses unprecedented optimism for the leading optical module companies, Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi, despite recent significant stock price increases, indicating that their valuations remain reasonable [1] Group 1: Valuation and Price Targets - Goldman Sachs calculates the expected P/E ratios for Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi for 2026 at 19x and 23x, respectively, which aligns closely with their historical averages since 2021 [1] - The target prices for Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi have been raised to RMB 392 and RMB 398, respectively, based on three driving factors [3][7] - The expected EPS for Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi for 2025-2027 has been increased by 3% to 38% due to improved market conditions [3][7] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The industry is facing tight supply conditions for upstream components, such as 200G EML lasers, which may limit competitors like Fabrinet while benefiting Zhongji Xuchuang [5] - Zhongji Xuchuang has a workforce of 7,000-8,000 in Thailand, significantly larger than its competitor Coherent, which has over 3,000 employees in Malaysia [5][6] - The recent U.S. tariff policy has exempted optical modules shipped from Thailand and Malaysia, alleviating concerns about market share loss due to trade tensions [2][6] Group 3: Price Trends and Market Resilience - The annual average selling price (ASP) decline is expected to slow from a previous forecast of 20% to 15% due to ongoing supply constraints and increased demand for higher-end products [3][6] - If all tariff uncertainties are removed, ASP declines could potentially be limited to 10%, translating to higher revenue and profit margins [7] - The binding rate of optical modules to GPU spending is increasing, indicating a growing value of optical modules in AI infrastructure [8][9] Group 4: Long-term Growth Potential - The upgrade cycle from 800G to 1.6T and eventually to 3.2T products is expected to provide strong and sustainable revenue growth for Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi [8][11] - Goldman Sachs projects peak net profits for Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi to reach approximately RMB 40 billion and RMB 36 billion, respectively, by 2029 [12] - The theoretical stock prices calculated based on peak earnings align closely with the new target prices set by Goldman Sachs [13]