乐歌股份(300729)：1H25扣非净利同降27% 尾程涨价、新仓爬坡拖累业绩

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a 29.6% increase in revenue to 3.145 billion yuan for 1H25, but a 19.5% decline in net profit attributable to shareholders to 129 million yuan, slightly below expectations due to increased last-mile delivery costs and challenges in the overseas warehouse business [1] Revenue Performance - Revenue for 1H25 increased by 29.6% to 3.145 billion yuan, with a quarterly breakdown showing a 37.7% increase in Q1 and a 22.6% increase in Q2 [1] - The overseas warehouse segment saw a significant revenue increase of 84.3% to 1.57 billion yuan, accounting for 49.9% of total revenue, driven by higher e-commerce penetration in the U.S. and the expansion of domestic cross-border enterprises [2] - The ergonomic product line generated 1.38 billion yuan in revenue, a 3.5% increase, with sales of ergonomic chairs, electric sofas, and electric beds doubling [2] Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for 1H25 decreased by 5.7 percentage points to 25.7%, influenced by the revenue structure shift towards overseas warehouses [3] - The gross margins for ergonomic products and overseas warehouses were 41.5% and 9.7%, respectively, with the latter experiencing a decline of 5.3 percentage points [3] - The net profit margin and adjusted net profit margin fell to 4.1% and 2.5%, respectively, due to high management expenses and the impact of new warehouse operations [3] Future Outlook - The ergonomic business is expected to grow steadily due to strong brand presence overseas and the introduction of new product categories [3] - The profitability of overseas warehouses is anticipated to improve as demand for cross-border e-commerce remains strong and operational efficiencies are realized [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised down its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 26% and 11% to 300 million yuan and 430 million yuan, respectively [4] - The current price corresponds to 17 and 12 times the projected P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026, with an 18% upside potential based on the maintained target price [4]