高盛顶尖交易员谈美股：“夏末逆风”要来了

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs traders warn that investors should prepare for an upcoming "late summer headwind" affecting the US stock market in September due to liquidity and seasonal factors [1] - The fundamental conditions of the consumer and labor markets are described as "not ideal," with risks of a shift from "no hiring, no layoffs" to direct deceleration, which the market has not fully priced in [1][3] - The AI trading theme, once a core driver of market gains, is showing signs of fatigue, with several key factors contributing to this slowdown [2] Group 2 - The short-term momentum in the AI sector has paused, influenced by a paper from MIT indicating that most AI projects have failed to generate positive returns, and Meta's hiring slowdown impacting market sentiment [2] - Seasonal patterns historically indicate that market performance tends to worsen entering September, with liquidity concerns heightened by increased Treasury withdrawals and upcoming bond auctions [2][3] - The labor market is showing signs of weakening, with evidence suggesting that the market is underestimating the risk of direct deceleration in employment growth [3] Group 3 - Despite facing multiple headwinds, the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve remains a key support for the market, as it emphasizes the weakening labor market [4] - The market has interpreted the Fed's recent statements as dovish, which has suppressed real interest rates and maintained strategies betting on stable or declining short-term rates [4] - The consensus in the market has shifted towards "shorting the dollar," although concerns regarding political instability in France may pose short-term risks to this trade [4]