特朗普大获全胜，美联储举手投降，未来资金会流向中国？

Group 1: Political Landscape and Economic Impact - Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election marked a significant political shift, as he became the second Republican president since 1988 to win the popular vote, reversing a 4.4 percentage point deficit from 2020 to a 1.5 percentage point lead [1] - The Republican Party gained a majority in the Senate, indicating a broader political realignment [1] - Trump's election raised concerns in international markets, particularly regarding trade policy uncertainty, leading to increased investor apprehension about U.S. tariffs and investment policies [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential shift in monetary policy, suggesting a possible interest rate cut in September 2024, which was perceived as the beginning of a new easing cycle [3] - The Fed subsequently lowered interest rates by 50 basis points in September 2024, bringing the range down to 4.75% to 5.00%, followed by additional cuts in November and December [3] - Political pressures were noted, as Trump criticized high interest rates during his campaign and exerted pressure on the Fed for further cuts, raising questions about the Fed's independence [3] Group 3: Currency Fluctuations - The U.S. dollar index experienced volatility, dropping 0.5% on the day of Powell's speech and continuing to face pressure as interest rates were cut [5] - By May 2025, the dollar index fell to 96.01, reflecting a 0.4% decline in a single day, while the Chinese yuan appreciated against the dollar [5] - The dollar had appreciated by 9.0% in Q4 2024, but the trend reversed in 2025 as investors began reallocating assets to mitigate dollar depreciation risks [5] Group 4: Capital Flows and Foreign Investment - Following Trump's election, there was a significant outflow of capital from Asian markets, with a record capital outflow of $4.57 billion from China in November 2024 [7] - Despite an overall decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) in China, high-tech manufacturing attracted foreign capital, with a 2% year-on-year increase in the first four months of 2025 [7] - China remained the fourth largest recipient of foreign investment globally, even as FDI fell by 11% worldwide in 2024 [7] Group 5: Technology Policy and Corporate Impact - Trump's administration adopted a new approach to technology policy, including a plan for the U.S. government to hold a 10% stake in Intel, valued at $8.9 billion, funded by CHIPS Act subsidies [8] - This policy extended to other tech companies like Apple, Nvidia, and AMD, raising concerns about market confidence and the implications of government intervention in the economy [8] - Critics argued that this approach deviated from traditional free enterprise principles, while Trump framed it as a strategy to strengthen U.S. tech manufacturing [8] Group 6: International Trade Relations - Trump's administration implemented protectionist trade policies, including a minimum 10% tariff on all imports and a 145% tariff on Chinese goods, escalating tensions between the U.S. and China [9] - In response, China announced measures to restrict key mineral exports and saw a significant drop in new investment projects from North America [9] - Despite a 29% decline in global FDI to China in 2024, sectors like energy and infrastructure continued to show growth, indicating resilience in China's international capital flows [9]