伊核谈判重启？欧洲制裁倒计时博弈？

Group 1 - The core demand from Iran is the complete lifting of sanctions while retaining the right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes, which aligns with the Iranian Foreign Minister's stance that any agreement cannot strip Iran of its nuclear rights [3][4] - The economic impact of sanctions is significant, with Iranian oil exports dropping by 60% since 2015, and European chemical companies facing rising costs, exemplified by BASF's projected 42% increase in raw material costs if sanctions are reinstated [4][6] - The geopolitical dynamics involve a complex interplay between the U.S., Russia, and Europe, with the U.S. adopting a contradictory approach of offering sanctions relief while demanding zero uranium enrichment from Iran [6][7] Group 2 - The potential reimposition of sanctions could lead to a 5.3% contraction in Iran's GDP and a loss of $18 billion in market share for European exporters, alongside escalating nuclear tensions that could provoke military actions from Israel [8][9] - There exists a slight possibility for progress in negotiations, particularly regarding the supervision of Iran's civilian nuclear program, although domestic political pressures in both Iran and the UK hinder substantial concessions [9][10] - Despite formal negotiations, practical cooperation continues, with ongoing interactions in sectors like oil and medical supplies, indicating that economic interdependence may serve as a buffer against total confrontation [10]