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【环球财经】英伟达财报前瞻:AI算力需求持续强劲 中国市场成重要变量

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's upcoming Q2 FY2026 earnings report is a critical indicator for assessing the sustainability of AI computing power demand, with significant focus on revenue, capital expenditure from cloud vendors, AI inference demand, and market outlook in China [1][6]. Financial Performance Expectations - Wall Street consensus anticipates Nvidia's Q2 revenue to increase by 53% year-over-year to $46 billion, with adjusted EPS rising by 49% to $1.01 and a gross margin of 72.1%. The guidance for Q3 revenue is projected between $53 billion and $57 billion [1][3]. - Nvidia has consistently exceeded revenue expectations for 11 consecutive quarters, but there is considerable disagreement among institutions regarding the continuation of this trend in Q2 FY2026 [3][6]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Among 42 analysts rating Nvidia, 36 recommend "buy," 5 suggest "hold," and 1 advises "sell." The average target price is $192.44 per share, indicating approximately 6% upside from the closing price on August 26 [3]. - Morgan Stanley has raised its revenue expectations for Q2 to $46.6 billion and for Q3 to $52.5 billion, also increasing the target price to $206, citing improved supply and demand dynamics in the data center business [4]. Data Center Business Insights - Nvidia's GPU supply and production capacity have significantly improved, with server ODM manufacturers achieving an 85% yield rate for GB200 racks. Major clients like Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft are expected to spend $359 billion on capital expenditures in 2025, a 57% increase year-over-year [5][6]. - The data center segment has been a major growth driver, contributing over 85% to Nvidia's record revenues in recent quarters, with Q2 revenue expectations between $42 billion and $43 billion, reflecting a 64% year-over-year increase [6]. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The investment environment for AI infrastructure is changing, with companies optimizing existing investments through software and chip architecture improvements. Concerns exist regarding the sustainability of rapid capital expenditures from tech giants [6]. - The Chinese market presents both opportunities and challenges for Nvidia, as local competitors are gradually increasing their market share. Despite this, Nvidia maintains a significant advantage in technology and functionality [7]. Developments in Domestic Chip Market - The domestic AI chip market in China is growing rapidly, with local brands increasing their market share. The introduction of models like DeepSeek R1 is enhancing the competitiveness of domestic chips [7][8]. - Recent financial results from local chipmaker Cambricon show a dramatic increase in revenue, indicating strong demand for AI computing power and a shift towards domestic alternatives [8][9].