Group 1 - The "golden summer" rally supporting the strong performance of US stocks is facing multiple challenges as investors return to the market, with signs of a weakening US economy, trade policy uncertainties, and political factors putting pressure on the market [1][2] - The S&P 500 index has risen over 30% since the end of April, driven by the performance of the "seven tech giants," while the market volatility index (VIX) has dropped to its lowest level of the year [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the current market rally is primarily reliant on the exceptional performance of a few tech companies rather than an improvement in the overall economic fundamentals [2] Group 2 - Three major risk factors are highlighted: signs of cooling in US economic data, insufficient consumer and business confidence, and potential escalation of global supply chain tensions due to US trade protection policies [2] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have arisen following the dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which may impact market sentiment [2] - The market's pricing of these risks appears insufficient, as indicated by a 5 basis point increase in the 30-year US Treasury yield to 4.94%, signaling potential warnings [2]
高盛预警:"黄金夏季"或即将终结 美股市场平静或被打破