债市拐点信号明确了吗？平安公司债ETF助力投资者穿越牛熊

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the bond market has shown significant adjustments since August, particularly in the long end, leading to a bearish trend with interest rate adjustments greater than credit [1][2] - The article suggests that two conditions need to be met for a turning point in the bond market: the pessimistic expectations must be fully released, and a widely recognized bullish signal must emerge [1][2] - Current institutional behavior suggests that pessimistic expectations in the bond market may have been largely released, as indicated by a typical adjustment process of gradual decline followed by stabilization [1][2] Group 2 - A clear and widely accepted bullish signal is needed for the bond market to recover, with potential signals including the end of a unilateral upward trend in equities or the bond market developing an independent trend [2][3] - The article discusses three possible bullish signals: the end of the equity market's unilateral rise, the potential for interest rate cuts by the central bank, and the confirmation of a turning point in social financing growth [2][3] - The article predicts that social financing growth may peak around 9.0% in July-August and gradually decline to approximately 8.2% by the end of the year, with government bond issuance pressures expected to decrease [2][3] Group 3 - The sentiment in the bond market appears to have been largely released, with a higher probability of independent trends in both stocks and bonds, while expectations for central bank interest rate cuts require further observation [3] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to face strong resistance around 1.8%, suggesting potential investment opportunities arising from the current adjustments in the bond market [3]