国能日新(301162)：核心业务高速增长 创新业务打开成长空间

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, driven by significant growth in its core business of power forecasting for the renewable energy sector, amidst a surge in new installations in the industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 321 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.15% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 45.97 million yuan, up 32.48% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 43.48 million yuan, reflecting a substantial growth of 53.52% year-on-year [1] Industry Trends - The renewable energy sector experienced a "rush to install" trend, with new photovoltaic power installations in China reaching 21.2 million kilowatts, a 107% increase year-on-year [2] - The company's power forecasting business generated revenue of 205 million yuan, marking a 55.14% increase and accounting for 63.94% of total revenue [2] - The gross margin for the power forecasting business was 61.58%, although it decreased by 11.91 percentage points year-on-year due to a higher proportion of lower-margin hardware sales [2] Customer Growth and Market Position - The company added 1,116 new customers during the reporting period, significantly exceeding historical levels [2] - The total number of renewable energy plants served by the company's forecasting services reached 5,461, maintaining its leading position in the industry [2] Innovation and Future Growth - The company upgraded its proprietary "Kuanming" model, improving forecasting accuracy by 1-1.5% in certain regions for wind and solar power [2] - The introduction of the "Four Available" policy for distributed photovoltaic power is expected to drive short-term demand and long-term growth in the market [2] - The company’s innovative products in virtual power plant operations generated revenue of 16.16 million yuan, a 1.53% increase, and accounted for 5.04% of total revenue [3] Long-term Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing market reforms in electricity trading, which are expected to enhance demand for its products [2][3] - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 120 million, 160 million, and 210 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27.79%, 34.15%, and 30.61% respectively [3]