旺季将至！12股滞涨低估值且绩优

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector has been the main driver of the A-share market's upward trend this year, while funds are increasingly flowing into the consumer sector, particularly food and beverage ETFs, indicating a shift in market focus [1][3]. Group 1: Consumer Sector Analysis - The upcoming traditional consumption peak season ("Golden September and Silver October") raises questions about whether the consumer sector can achieve both valuation and performance recovery after three years of adjustment [2]. - Since mid-August, consumer-themed ETFs have seen significant inflows, with over 3.4 billion yuan net inflow into consumer ETFs, particularly nearly 3 billion yuan into food and beverage ETFs [3]. - The consumer sector's valuation is at a near three-year low, with the major consumer index's price-to-earnings ratio at 19.88 times, about 30% lower than its three-year average of 28.17 times [7]. Group 2: Performance and Growth Potential - The 800 Consumer Index is expected to see net profit growth exceeding that of the CSI 300 Index from 2024 to 2027, with a forecast of double-digit growth in 2026 and 2027 [8]. - The consumer sector's market activity has increased, with the average turnover rate of the 800 Consumer Index rising for three consecutive months since June, and the food and beverage sector achieving a daily average turnover rate of 3.55% in August [11]. - Companies in the consumer sector have a strong track record of dividends and buybacks, with over half of the index constituents implementing buybacks and a total buyback amount exceeding 13 billion yuan [12]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical trends indicate that the consumer sector often experiences a "first rise" and "subsequent rise" pattern during A-share bull markets, suggesting potential for future gains [14][16]. - The government has emphasized consumption as a key area for economic policy, with initiatives aimed at boosting consumer spending and stabilizing growth [15]. - Twelve underperforming consumer stocks with low valuations and strong earnings potential have been identified, including well-known companies like Kweichow Moutai and Yutong Bus, which have shown stable profit growth [17][19].