国盛证券：维持今世缘“买入”评级，上半年营收下降但市场份额仍有提升

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that despite a decline in revenue for Jiuziyuan in the first half of 2025, the company has managed to increase its market share, with stable advance payments and better performance in certain regions [1] Revenue Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue from within the province was 6.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6%, while revenue from outside the province was 600 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5% [1] - For Q2 2025, the revenue decreased by 32% year-on-year for the province and 18% for outside the province [1] Regional Breakdown - In H1 2025, revenue from various regions within the province was as follows: Huai'an 1.2 billion yuan (-4%), Nanjing 1.8 billion yuan (-8%), Su Nan 700 million yuan (-11%), Su Zhong 1.1 billion yuan (-0.2%), Yancheng 800 million yuan (-6%), and Huaihai 700 million yuan (-7%) [1] - In Q2 2025, the year-on-year revenue changes for these regions were: Huai'an -30%, Nanjing -34%, Su Nan -39%, Su Zhong -19%, Yancheng -39%, and Huaihai -45% [1] Strategic Developments - The company has made breakthroughs in sales in regions surrounding Jiangsu (including Anhui, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai) and plans to launch a new product line called "Danya" outside the province [1] Earnings Forecast - Due to overall sales pressure, the earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards, with expected diluted EPS of 2.43, 2.58, and 2.85 yuan per share for the respective years, compared to previous estimates of 2.99, 3.28, and 3.58 yuan per share [1] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 18, 17, and 16 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a maintained "buy" rating [1]