油价还有下跌空间？高盛：准备好迎接50美元的油价吧！

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that due to increasing oil surplus next year, Brent crude oil futures will drop to the low range of $50 per barrel by the end of 2026 [2] - The bank estimates that from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, the oil surplus will expand to an average of 1.8 million barrels per day, leading to a global inventory increase of nearly 800 million barrels [2] - By 2026, oil stored in OECD member countries is expected to account for one-third of global total inventory, amounting to 270 million barrels [2] Group 2 - Brent crude oil prices may remain close to forward contract levels for the remainder of 2025, but are expected to fall below these levels next year due to accelerated inventory growth in OECD countries [2] - If China's inventory growth accelerates from the current 400,000 barrels per day to 800,000 barrels per day, the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 could rise by $6 to $62 [2] Group 3 - The ongoing Ukraine conflict introduces uncertainty into the oil market, leading to potential volatility, although the market has not fully priced in significant supply risk premiums [3] - The U.S. has imposed an additional 25% tariff on exports to India, raising the total tariff rate to 50%, which has caused traders to hesitate regarding market direction [3][5] Group 4 - Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum have resumed purchasing Russian oil supplies for September and October, indicating a willingness to continue buying based on economic benefits [4] - Analysts question the extent to which the higher U.S. tariffs will impact India's procurement of Russian oil, suggesting that secondary tariffs may not be sufficient to deter purchases [5] Group 5 - The Ukraine conflict is also affecting the oil market through drone attacks on Russian refineries, which are reducing operational capacity and forcing Russia to increase its crude oil exports by 200,000 barrels per day from western ports [5]