7月通胀率超预期上升 支持澳洲联储9月按兵不动

Core Viewpoint - Australia's inflation rate in July exceeded expectations, rising to 2.8%, which is the highest annual increase since July 2024, prompting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to maintain its current interest rate policy in September [1]. Group 1: Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Australia increased by 2.8% year-on-year in July, significantly higher than June's 1.9% and above economists' expectations of 2.3% [1]. - The trimmed mean inflation measure favored by the RBA rose to 2.7%, up from 2.1% in the previous month [1]. - Housing prices surged by 3.6%, driven by soaring electricity prices, making it one of the largest contributors to annual price changes [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The RBA recently lowered the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6%, marking the third rate cut this year, with expectations for further cuts in the future [2]. - Market expectations indicate that the RBA will likely keep rates unchanged in September, with the next anticipated rate cut in November [1]. - The RBA's chair, Michele Bullock, emphasized the need for cautious policy adjustments, suggesting that monthly CPI data may not fully reflect the actual inflation situation [2]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Moody's Australia economic head, Sunny Kim Nguyen, expressed a dovish stance, predicting that government energy subsidies starting this month may alleviate some price pressures [2]. - Nguyen noted that seasonal price increases related to travel typically diminish after the July school holidays [2][3].