KVB怎么样：非农数据与美联储降息预期如何影响美元短期波动？

Core Viewpoint - The USD index remains stable but is highly sensitive to economic data and Federal Reserve policies, reflecting a tug-of-war between policy expectations and economic indicators [1][3]. Economic Data Impact - Employment data significantly influences the USD; recent revisions showed a decrease of 258,000 in non-farm payrolls for May and June, impacting market sentiment [3]. - If September's non-farm data indicates continued employment weakness, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts may increase, potentially pressuring the USD [3]. Federal Reserve Policy - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting suggest that rate cuts remain a possibility amid slowing economic growth [3]. - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut in the September meeting, with some officials suggesting a possibility of a 50 basis point cut if dovish sentiments prevail [3]. Technical Analysis - The short-term resistance for the USD index is identified at 98.45–98.50, with a key resistance zone at 98.80–98.85; a breakthrough could expand upward potential [4]. - Support levels are noted at 98.00–98.05 and more critically at 97.80–97.85; breaking these levels may trigger a technical correction [4]. - The USD is currently exhibiting a range-bound pattern between 98.00 and 98.80, with market volatility expected around key support and resistance levels [4].