资深央行记者：为美联储独立性终结做准备，而市场还没意识到

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump may signal the end of the Fed's independence, a situation that financial markets have not fully priced in [1][2] Group 1: Impact on Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's action could mark a critical turning point for the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to higher inflation and increased market volatility if the White House gains control over monetary policy [1] - Evercore ISI warns that the market's current calmness does not adequately reflect the risks associated with a politicized Federal Reserve [2] - Investors may need to adjust their assumptions, as future Fed rate decisions could align more with Trump's preferences rather than economic fundamentals [2] Group 2: Trump's Strategy - Trump's approach to the Fed mirrors his trade policies, employing a gradual strategy that creates an illusion of stability while implementing significant changes [3][4] - By hinting at the potential dismissal of Powell, Trump shifted tactics to appoint loyalists to the Fed, aiming to gain a majority on the Board of Governors [4] Group 3: Potential Consequences of Dismissals - The potential removal of regional Fed presidents could significantly alter policy dynamics, reducing dissenting voices within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [5] - Trump's use of "specific reasons" for dismissals sends a clear message that he may take similar actions against any board member who does not align with his views [6] Group 4: Economic Implications - Current economic conditions, rather than the Fed's actions, are expected to drive inflation in the short term, with a temporary rise anticipated due to tariffs [8] - The market's inability to price in structural economic changes could lead to significant losses for investors, as historical precedents suggest potential for high inflation [8]