供减需增 PE有望逐渐走强

Supply Pressure Eases - The PE maintenance season has ended, leading to a gradual rebound in operating rates, which once exceeded 90%. However, recent unplanned maintenance has caused a significant decline in operating rates, dropping to around 81%, a decrease of 10% from previous highs. Future operating rate recovery is limited due to additional maintenance plans [1] - After a concentrated production increase in the first half of the year, there are no new production plans for PE from July to November, indicating that supply-side pressure is temporarily manageable [1] Demand Season Expected to Start - The traditional demand peak for PE, known as "Golden September and Silver October," is approaching, with expectations for a noticeable improvement in demand. The demand for greenhouse films is particularly promising, showing early signs of improvement and expected to strengthen significantly until November. Additionally, the holiday season in the second half of the year is likely to kick off the peak demand for PE packaging films [3] "Anti-Competition" Provides Support - The "anti-competition" trend has emerged as a significant positive factor in the commodity market, providing a policy floor for commodities. Some products, such as coking coal and polysilicon, have seen prices nearly double. Initially focused on the new energy and black industries, the "anti-competition" agenda has recently gained traction in the chemical sector, with some chemical companies' stocks hitting the limit up and chemical futures gradually rebounding. Approximately 15% of PE facilities are considered outdated, with potential for elimination, which would significantly alleviate supply-side pressure [6] Summary - Although the current PE off-season has ended, the initiation of the peak season is not yet evident, leading to continued price fluctuations. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season begins, the fundamentals of PE are expected to improve, with the "anti-competition" trend potentially providing strong support, allowing prices to gradually reverse the current weak situation [7]