鲍威尔讲话引市场震动，大宗商品市场站 “十字路口”，我国机遇与挑战何在？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the potential for a shift in U.S. monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate cuts, in response to economic indicators such as employment and inflation [1][3][4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole conference indicated rising risks in the job market and suggested that the impact of tariffs on inflation might be temporary, which the market interpreted as a signal for potential rate cuts [1][3] - Economic data from the U.S. shows a mixed performance, with GDP growth slowing to 1.2% year-on-year in the first half of the year, significantly lower than the expected growth for 2024 [3] Group 2 - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding the decision to cut rates, with some officials emphasizing the need for more economic data before making such a decision [4] - Following Powell's speech, U.S. stock indices surged, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.47%, the S&P 500 by 1.35%, and the Nasdaq by 1.62%, while the dollar index fell by 0.78% [5] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September increased significantly, with the probability rising from 75% to 91.3% in a single day [5] Group 3 - The global commodity market is at a critical juncture, with the interplay between rate cut expectations and economic realities creating uncertainty [5][7] - Historical trends indicate that rate cuts do not necessarily lead to a recovery in commodity markets, as seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2001 internet bubble, where demand plummeted despite rate cuts [5][7] - Current demand weakness in the commodity market is exacerbated by low consumer confidence and reduced household spending, leading to a cycle of shrinking demand and slowing production [7] Group 4 - Different commodities are reacting variably to the prospect of rate cuts, with gold seeing increased investment as a safe haven, while copper and oil face challenges due to weak industrial demand and complex market factors [9] - In the context of China's commodity market, a successful U.S. rate cut could potentially boost exports to the U.S., increasing demand for related commodities [10] - The supply side may also adjust in response to rate cut expectations, with foreign mining companies potentially increasing production, while domestic producers face constraints from environmental policies and industry upgrades [10]