Gold - Following a dovish speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, discussions about interest rate cuts remain active, with Morgan Stanley predicting no rate changes until March next year, and a total of six cuts by the end of next year, bringing rates down to the 2.75%-3.0% range [1] - Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, while Powell's dovish comments increase the likelihood of rate cuts, both factors are favorable for gold prices [1] - Gold prices rose from $3320 to a peak of $3394, with a warning of potential short-term pullbacks, focusing on the $3372 support level [1] Oil - The U.S. government has increased tariffs on goods from India from 25% to 50% in response to India's continued purchase of Russian oil, with Indian oil companies stating that their purchases depend on pricing [2] - Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities have forced Russian refineries to halt operations, leading to an increase in oil exports by 200,000 barrels per day from western ports in August [2] - Oil prices have been on a downward trend since September 2023, with a critical support level at $64.50 not being reclaimed, and current resistance at $63.50 and support at $62.30 [2] Dollar Index - Rising expectations for interest rate cuts have led to a decline in short-term U.S. Treasury yields, while long-term yields are increasing due to inflation expectations and economic uncertainty, which may steepen the yield curve [3] - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence could lead to sustained steepening of Treasury yields, with warnings that loosening monetary policy before inflation is under control may prompt investors to sell U.S. Treasuries [3] - The dollar index has shown volatile movements recently, with a focus on the resistance level at 98.80; failure to break this level may lead to continued fluctuations or declines [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been in a downward adjustment since last week, with ongoing adjustments not yet concluded, focusing on support at the 42000 level and resistance at 42650 for a potential return to an upward trend [5] Copper - After a significant drop in copper prices at the end of July, the bullish trend has paused, with prices maintaining low levels and struggling to break the $4.50 resistance, suggesting a trading range between $4.32 and $4.50 [6]
百利好晚盘分析：降息前景光明 黄金震荡上行
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-27 09:20