Is Marvell Stock A Buy Before Earnings?

Company Overview - Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) is set to announce its Q2 2026 earnings on August 28, 2025, with anticipated revenues of approximately $2.01 billion, reflecting a 58% year-over-year increase, and earnings predicted to be around $0.67 per share [2] - The expected growth is driven by strong demand for AI in the data center market, where Marvell's custom silicon solutions and electro-optics products are gaining significant traction [2] Financial Performance - Marvell currently has a market capitalization of $63 billion, with revenue for the last twelve months amounting to $6.5 billion [3] - The company reported operational profits of $40 million, but a net income of -$491 million [3] Earnings Analysis - Historical data shows that Marvell has had 17 earnings data points over the past five years, with 6 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns, resulting in a positive return occurrence of approximately 35% [5] - This percentage declines to 25% when considering the last three years [5] - The median of the 6 positive returns is 13%, while the median of the 11 negative returns is -5.6% [5] Correlation and Trading Strategy - A lower-risk approach involves assessing the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, with a focus on pairs that demonstrate the highest correlation [6] - If the 1D post-earnings return is positive, traders might consider positioning themselves "long" for the subsequent 5 days based on the correlation between 1D and 5D returns [6] Peer Performance Impact - The performance of peers can influence Marvell's post-earnings stock response, with pricing potentially beginning before the earnings announcement [7]