广东鸿图(002101)：盈利能力短期承压 加速拓展第二增长曲线

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance for 1H25, with revenue growth but a significant decline in net profit, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue increases driven by key clients [1][2]. Financial Performance - 1H25 revenue reached 4.27 billion yuan, up 17.2% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 114 million yuan, down 34.1% year-on-year; non-recurring net profit was 104 million yuan, down 33.6% year-on-year [1]. - For 2Q25, revenue was 2.17 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.0% and a year-on-year increase of 3.5%; net profit was 69 million yuan, down 35.3% quarter-on-quarter but up 52.9% year-on-year; non-recurring net profit was 64 million yuan, down 37.0% quarter-on-quarter but up 57.3% year-on-year [1]. Revenue Drivers and Profitability - Revenue growth was primarily driven by clients like Xpeng and BYD, with 1H25 revenue from aluminum die-casting and injection molding reaching 3.16 billion yuan and 1.04 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 17.0% and 15.2% [2]. - Profitability faced pressure, with gross margins for aluminum die-casting and injection molding at 11.6% and 14.9%, down 3.0 and 0.2 percentage points year-on-year; net margins for casting and interior/exterior trim were 2.7% and 4.9% [2]. Business Development and Future Outlook - The company is positioned to achieve profitability in integrated die-casting by the end of the year, with significant production capacity and partnerships with leading clients like Xpeng and Toyota [3]. - The company is also expanding into low-altitude economy and intelligent robotics, having secured project points with clients in these sectors, indicating potential for new revenue streams [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to client structure adjustments and profit pressure, the company has revised down its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 10.8% and 11.7% to 370 million yuan and 410 million yuan, respectively [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.2x for 2025 and 21.7x for 2026, with a target price of 13.5 yuan, suggesting a slight upside potential [4].