Will Cloud and AI Growth Help Seagate Preserve Its Margin Momentum?

Core Insights - Seagate Technology is experiencing significant demand growth driven by cloud, AI, and edge computing, with nearline hard drives being essential for hyperscale cloud storage [1][2] - The company's build-to-order contracts provide revenue visibility into mid-2026, ensuring predictable supply for cloud service providers [1] - Seagate's mass-capacity revenues increased by 40% year-over-year to $2 billion in Q4, with nearline drives making up 91% of mass-capacity exabytes shipped [2][9] Revenue and Profitability - The adoption of Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) technology and the Mozaic 3+ platform is expected to enhance storage economics and profitability [3] - Seagate's Q4 non-GAAP gross margin reached 37.9%, a 170 basis point sequential increase and nearly 700 basis points year-over-year, driven by high-capacity nearline drives and pricing discipline [5][9] - Non-GAAP operating income nearly doubled to $640 million, resulting in an operating margin increase to 26.2% [5] Future Outlook - For Q1 of fiscal 2026, Seagate anticipates revenues of approximately $2.5 billion, reflecting a 15% year-over-year growth at the midpoint, with non-GAAP earnings projected at $2.30 per share [6] - Management expects continued gross margin expansion into the mid-to-high 20% range of revenues [6] Competitive Landscape - Seagate faces competition from HDD and SSD manufacturers like Western Digital and Pure Storage, which are also capitalizing on rising cloud demand [7][8] - Western Digital reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 41.3% in Q4, while Pure Storage's non-GAAP gross margin was 70.9% in Q1 of fiscal 2025 [8][10] Market Performance - Seagate's shares have increased by 66.4% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Computer Integrated Systems industry's growth of 20.2% [11] - The forward price/earnings ratio for Seagate is 17.01X, lower than the industry's 19.97X [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Seagate's earnings for fiscal 2026 has been revised up by 4.2% to $10.30 [13]