国内油价下调，加满一箱油少花7元左右｜油市跌宕

Core Viewpoint - Domestic oil prices have been adjusted downward, with gasoline and diesel prices reduced by 180 yuan and 175 yuan per ton respectively, effective from August 26, 2025, due to fluctuations in international oil prices [2][3][4]. Price Adjustment Details - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices based on the average price of crude oil over the previous ten working days, with a reference crude oil price of $65.07 per barrel and a change rate of -3.90% [3][4]. - This marks the seventh price reduction in 2025, contributing to a total of 17 adjustments this year, with the overall trend being "six increases, seven decreases, and four suspensions" [3][4]. Impact on Consumers - Following the price adjustment, the retail price for 92-octane gasoline is expected to be between 7.2 and 7.3 yuan per liter, while diesel prices will range from 6.8 to 7 yuan per liter [4]. - For an average private car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up will cost approximately 7 yuan less, and for heavy-duty trucks, the fuel cost per 100 kilometers will decrease by about 6 yuan [4]. International Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil market has experienced volatility, with OPEC+ maintaining a firm stance on production increases, leading to a projected record U.S. oil production of 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025 [5][6]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a significant oversupply in the global oil market, with an increase in global oil supply by 2.5 million barrels per day this year and 1.9 million barrels per day next year [5][6]. Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict a high probability of price increases in the next round of domestic oil price adjustments, with an expected increase of 140 yuan per ton based on current oil prices [8]. - The upcoming price adjustment window is set for September 9, 2025, with initial estimates suggesting a potential increase of 130 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [8].