美联储独立性再遭侵蚀，黄金“避风港地位”加固

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat following Trump's dismissal of board member Lisa Cook, leading to potential pressure on U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar, while increasing the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [1][4]. Market Volatility - Trump's ongoing conflict with the Federal Reserve continues, highlighted by his announcement to fire Lisa Cook, which he claims is due to alleged past mortgage fraud [2]. - Cook disputes the legality of her dismissal, stating that Trump lacks the authority to remove her without just cause, as per U.S. law [2]. - Following the announcement, the dollar weakened but later recovered, while U.S. Treasury yields mostly declined, with the 2-year yield down 4.26 basis points to 3.672% and the 10-year yield down 0.78 basis points to 4.261% [2]. Stock Market Resilience - The U.S. stock market showed relative resilience, with major indices rising, partly due to expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. - Analysts suggest that the market's muted response to the political turmoil may indicate investor fatigue or uncertainty regarding the legality of Trump's actions [3]. - The potential appointment of Trump's nominee Stephen Miran could further shift the balance of power within the Federal Reserve [3]. Gold's Appeal - The attack on the Federal Reserve's independence is seen as a direct threat to its credibility, which could diminish the attractiveness of U.S. assets [4]. - Gold prices surged to a two-week high, closing at $3,393.62 per ounce, reflecting increased demand as a hedge against inflation and political uncertainty [4]. - Analysts predict that if the Federal Reserve loses its independence, gold will become the preferred safe haven for investors, with central banks expected to purchase around 1,000 tons of gold this year [5]. Investment Strategies - In times of financial risk, tangible assets like gold and real estate are expected to become safe havens, especially if the Federal Reserve's independence is compromised [5]. - The loss of the Federal Reserve's independence could pose long-term risks to U.S. bonds and the dollar, prompting investors to consider international investments in stable, low-inflation countries as a hedge against rising U.S. inflation [5].